So very, very busy this these last few weeks. There’s a sense of urgency to the effort, with a clock ticking down right in your face. In the manufacturing sector (my area of expertise), it is difficult to describe. I know most people don’t work in this sector, so let me try to provide some insight through a few examples.
The erosion in business has been steep and full of surprises. Customers commit to an amount they will order on Tuesday, announce they are closing their plant for a period of time, then cancel their orders on the next Tuesday. Layoffs are planned, announced, processed, then new numbers come in that mean the cuts weren’t steep enough. Sales declines are 20-40% year over year in some companies. The costs for that level of decline are often beyond a company’s ability to manage. The spike in commodity prices in 2008 and subsequent decline at the end of the year has left companies and customers stuck with inventory that is now devalued.
Inventory devaluation is a huge problem for manufacturers, one that the banking crisis isn’t helping. Banks have loans, lines of credit, and other financial instruments backed by inventory value as part of the collateral. For example, a company has $1,000,000 of inventory that is based on a price of $1.00/pound on average. Let’s say that the value of the inventory is now $0.70/pound. A bank has given a company a line of credit worth 50% of the value of the inventory, so an original line of credit of $500,000. This inventory is now worth $700,000, so their line of credit has dropped to $350,000. The complication to this is that business has slowed significantly, so now they need less inventory. If they cut the amount of inventory, it reduces their line of credit even more.
I haven’t explained it very well I’m sure (hopefully someone can explain it better or point us in a good direction). I’d like to say that part of the TARP funding for banks is now being used to work with manufacturers to work through issues like this. Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem to be the case.
I wrote a year ago a post, What to Do in a Recession, that was my most trafficked post for 2008. Part II was written a few months later. Both are probably worth reading again, just to be sure we’re doing everything we can. One recommendation I feel even more strongly about today is finding one-three incremental revenue streams. Some of these may be a combined household idea, some may be individual for one spouse or another. Some may be for children even, a way to reduce costs like allowances or spending money while simultaneously having children contributing. This is important regardless of your financial situation currently, I believe.
I’m closing on a quite significant new venture that I’m extremely excited about, one that may take me and our family in an entirely new direction. It will be a new revenue stream for us, an opportunity for my wife and I to work closely together, and a chance to get in front of a big opportunity. It could eventually become our primary source of income. In 2009, it will become a key part of our lives. Look for a launch post early next week.
The dawn is now here, and my boys and wife are emerging. Good morning all.
